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MARCH 16,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

LIKE A STONE WALL – Thus far Senate Republicans are sticking to their pledge not to bring up the president's nomination of Judge Merrick Garland, preferring to wait until a new president is elected.  It's highly unlikely that a Republican president would renominate Garland, and Hillary Clinton would probably be pressured by her base to choose someone much more liberal.  So, far now, the Garland nomination is going nowhere.  However, I would not be shocked if Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell changed is mind within a month or so, as Republicans start to reason that Garland, a deeply respected judge, may be the best they'll ever do.  As one commentator said, in normal times Garland would easily be confirmed.  These are strange times.

SAD – Frank Sinatra Jr. has died suddenly at 72.  He never reached the heights his father did, but he was a competent singer, with a fine voice, who built a musical career of his own.  Had he come along earlier, in the golden age of American popular music, sometimes called the Great American songbook, he probably would have been more successful and better known, and even had his own band.  We don't have many traditional "saloon singers" left, but the great songs of the golden age endure for many of us.

TRUMP TRUMPS CRUZ – From Fox:  Fox News has canceled its March 21 Republican presidential debate following Donald Trump's decision not to attend, three sources told CNNMoney on Wednesday.
Dan Hayes, the general manager of the Salt Palace Convention Center, which was scheduled to host the debate, said he had "received verbal statements from Fox News" that the debate would no longer be taking place.  Two Fox News sources familiar with the decision confirmed the debate had been canceled.  Trump thus denies to Ted Cruz what Cruz dearly wanted – a one-on-one debate, with John Kasich kind of standing there.  It was Cruz's chance to confront Trump.  Now that chance is gone, and the Cruz campaign will have to run a standard campaign.  I think it's very iffy.  Trump's move in pulling out of the Fox debate proved to be shrewd. 

WELL, THAT THREAT HAS EASED – From People:  Once Michelle Obama leaves the White House next year, she won't be looking back.  After delivering a keynote speech promoting education for girls around the world at South by Southwest on Wednesday, the First Lady said in a panel moderated by Queen Latifah that she "will not run for president."  Obama cited her daughters, Sasha and Malia, as one reason.  "I have these two young people at home. Being the daughters of a president, just think about it. Not so easy. They handled it with grace and poise."   If only their father had such grace and poise.  But I'm relieved that Michelle isn't running.  I don't know if I could take those forced morning exercises on CNN, or the healthy breakfasts.  Some things are just dreadful.

March 16,  2016     Permalink

BULLETIN – AT 10:06 A.M. ET:  Both Fox and CNN are reporting that Merrick Garland, chief judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, will be nominated by President Obama at 11 a.m. to replace Antonin Scalia on the U.S. Supreme Court.

A bit of a surprise.  Although Garland has been on Obama's short list, as we noted earlier today, he is 63 and a white male.   It's unusual for a Supreme Court nominee to be that old, as presidents see their Court appointments as part of their legacy, and want that legacy to go on as long as possible.   True, Garland is chief judge of the most prestigious federal judicial circuit, but that doesn't change his age.

Also, it was widely expected that Obama would avoid naming a white male.  Sri Srinivasan, another candidate on the short list, would have been the first Asian American nominated to the Court.

The apparent Republican strategy, from late reports, will be to concede Garland's qualifications, but still refuse to consider him, on procedural grounds.  Republicans will insist that no nomination should be weighed this close to a presidential election.

We must also add that Garland has a history of antagonism toward the rights of gun owners, something that will play heavily in a Republican Senate.  It may be the disqualifier.

I suspect that Garland's nomination will languish this year.  Should Hillary be elected, she could renominate him, but it's more likely she'd want her own, clear choice.  In addition, Garland has no constituency.  He isn't a member of a demanding ethnic or sexual group.  He isn't a "first."  Who'll be shouting if his nomination fails?

March 16, 2016        Permalink

BIG MISTAKE – AT 9:31 A.M. ET:   The question is whether Donald Trump, heading toward a probable nomination for the presidency, will begin to act like a president.  The first sign is disappointing.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump confirmed Wednesday that he would not be attending the last GOP debate on Monday in Utah, citing a prior commitment to speak before the American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference that day.

Trump made the news official during an appearance on "Fox and Friends," telling host Steve Doocy that he would not be there on Monday, and adding that "we've had enough debates."

"Mr. Trump, are you going to be at the Fox News debate on March 21st?" Doocy asked Trump.

"You know, I'll be honest, nobody even told me about it," Trump said. "Nobody told me about the debates, and as you saw, the last debate on CNN was the last debate. That was going to be it."

COMMENT:  Major blunder.  There's an old political saying about dealing with the print press:  "Don't start up with people who buy ink by the barrel."  Well, in the TV age, don't needlessly start up with Fox News.

I mean, come on.  The AIPAC speech could easily be rescheduled.  AIPAC's national meetings take place over several days.  And this scheduling conflict certainly was known days ago.  Why did Trump wait until last night's victories to pull out of the debate?  It looks arrogant, reinforcing an unfortunate part of Trump's reputation.  He hasn't won the nomination yet.  He's close, but the cigars haven't been distributed.  He owes the Republican Party a debate with only three men on stage – Trump, Cruz, and Kasich.  Is Trump afraid? 

Now the ball is in Fox's court.  Does the company cancel the debate, or go on with it, with an empty chair substituting for Trump?   Trump's withdrawal could lead to a Cruz-Kasich "discussion," with both of them getting vast, free publicity.  It may be the thing that could change the Republican race. 

Not a good move on Trump's part.  Reconsider, sir.

March 16, 2016       Permalink

TODAY – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:  President Obama will, at 11 a.m., reveal his pick for a justice to succeed  the late Antonin Scalia on the United States Supreme Court.

Any choice would have to be confirmed by the Senate.  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has already said that he will not allow an Obama selection to be considered.  McConnell, and most Republicans, want the choice to be made by the president elected in November.  We'll see if McConnell's strategy is maintained, or abandoned.

If Hillary Clinton is elected, her choice could be just as bad as Obama's, or worse, especially if the Senate flips, and the new Senate sworn in January of next year, is Democratic.  Ditto with Donald Trump.  He will march to his own drummer, and could easily appoint a Democrat, or one of his family's lawyers. 

According to press reports, the president has narrowed his choices to two men.  From Reuters:

He is likely to announce one of two federal appeals court judges, Sri Srinivasan or Merrick Garland, as his choice, a source familiar with the selection process told Reuters.

The Indian-born Srinivasan, 49, would be the first Asian-American and first Hindu Supreme Court justice. Garland, 63, is a long-time appellate judge and former prosecutor who Obama also considered when he filled two previous Supreme Court vacancies.

Obama has been searching for a replacement for long-serving conservative Justice Antonin Scalia, who died on Feb. 13.

"I’m confident you’ll share my conviction that this American is not only eminently qualified to be a Supreme Court Justice, but deserves a fair hearing, and an up-or-down vote," Obama said in the statement ahead of his scheduled announcement in the White House Rose Garden.

A third judge has also been mentioned, Paul Watford, of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in California.  Both Srinivasan and Garland are considered moderate liberals, with Srinivasan the more moderate.  He was confirmed unanimously for his present position as an appeals court judge.  Given that record, it would be hard for McConnell to refuse to consider him.

However, I'd be careful about predictions.  Sometimes names are leaked by the White House to throw the press off, allowing a president to drop a surprise.  We'll see at 11 a.m.  We'll see whether Obama's pick is serious, or simply a sacrificial lamb to provoke McConnell into refusing to act, and thus inflaming some favored part of the Democratic constituency.

March 16,  2016     Permalink

MARCH 15,  2016

NO "SHORT TAKES" TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE MAJOR PRIMARIES

It was son of Super Tuesday, and lived up to its billing.  Tonight was the most important night of the race for the presidency because it brought a new clarity.

For Hillary Clinton it was a great night.  She swept the field, winning Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, and beating back a Bernie barrage to win narrowly in Illinois.  Missouri is still deadlocked.  But it's hard to figure where Bernie goes from here.  I'm kind of relieved.  I'm no fan of Hillary, to be clear, but Bernie Sanders is one of the most dangerous people in public life.   He, much more than Obama, is the dream of the sixties radicals.  I am speculating that Hillary is on her way to the nomination, with one big obstacle – the FBI probe into her practices as secretary of state.  That could be fatal, and I'm sure the heat is already on to allow the queen to make some kind of deal with the Justice Department.  A fine, maybe, with no acknowledgment of guilt.   

For Donald Trump it was also a great night, and his victory speech almost sounded presidential.  We always thought of the great Ronald Reagan as the teflon candidate.  Trump is super teflon, several coats thick.  No matter what he says or does, his victories still mount.  Yes, his negatives are staggering (as are Hillary's), but it's the positives that are moving him to the nomination.  He won all but two states tonight.  Critically, John Kasich held on to his home state of Ohio.  And Trump and Ted Cruz are locked in a virtual tie in Missouri. We may not know Missouri's results for days.

Marco Rubio bowed out, giving a gracious, elegant concession speech suspending his campaign.  This step was inevitable after the loss of his home state.   He's, in my view, a gifted man with a long political career ahead of him, if he wants it.  Many saw him as the Republican Party's best chance for victory this year, but he ran into the unexpected Trump machine and never made much headway in the primaries.  Jack Kennedy couldn't even make it onto the Democratic ticket as vice presidential candidate in 1956, but came back to win the presidential nomination four years later.

So now, on the Republican side, we have effectively a two-man race, with a debate coming up Monday night.  True, Kasich stays in as the third man, but he's essentially a soldier in the stop-Trump army.  It's Trump against Cruz.  Neither man inspires love from the GOP establishment, or from anyone else for that matter.   The numbers tell us that Trump is heavily favored, but it's a very strange year.  If he doesn't come into the convention in July with enough votes to win on the first ballot, all chaos could break out, with everyone threatening a third party.

Such fun.  And Hillary could be indicted.

We need Jimmy Stewart.

March 15, 2016       Permalink

A ONE-WAY STREET – AT 11:09 A.M. ET:   The administration is making new concessions to Cuba.  But many are increasingly asking what we're getting in return.  That would be a short answer.  From the Washington Examiner: 

The administration on Tuesday put Americans closer to visiting Cuba and purchasing Cuban-made goods than at any time since Washington imposed severe sanctions on the communist nation.

The Treasury and Commerce departments said U.S. citizens would be allowed to independently make educational trips to Cuba. Previously, Americans could visit only through a government-approved organization and had to be accompanied by a group representative. They made the announcement ahead of President Obama's historic trip to the island next week.

"This change is intended to make authorized educational travel to Cuba more accessible and less expensive for U.S. citizens, and will increase opportunities for direct engagement between Cubans and Americans," the joint news release said.

COMMENT:  And what precisely does this country, or Cuba's oppressed people, get out of this?  Cuba needs the deal far more than we do, and yet we made all the concessions.  Of course, Obama's crowd has always had a crush on Fidel.  Never mind the political prisons.  In Cuba you get free cough drops.  Take that, Mayo Clinic!

If Sanders ever gets elected, he will be far worse.  He not only was a fan of the Castros, he was a cheerleader for the Sandinistas.  And he honeymooned in the Soviet Union.  ("The Kremlin is for lovers.") 

In the meantime, the Castro boys will have to settle for Obama.  Cuba's thousands of political prisoners have not sent their thanks.

March 15, 2016       Permalink

ANOTHER SUPER TUESDAY – AT 9:53 A.M. ET:   Americans are already voting.  Today's vote will have a dramatic impact on both political parties.  On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders is once again showing real strength against Hillary Clinton.  As we reported last night, the gap between them in national polls has narrowed. 

Recently, Sanders upset Clinton in Michigan.  He has a shot at doing the same thing today in Illinois and Ohio.  While Hillary leads handily in Florida, in Ohio she's up by only about six points.  In Illinois, she may lead by only three.  Hillary leads strongly in North Carolina, but Bernie is leading in the latest Missouri polls, if only by a point or so.  The press continues to suppress any real information about Bernie's political background, which is far left, even more left than Obama.  And young people, indoctrinated in the fever swamps that have become our colleges, flock to him.  He come to save us, just like Obama.  At the same time, Hillary is decidedly unpopular, has an FBI probe hanging over her, and avoids the truth whenever possible.

On the GOP side, it may be a make-or-break day for the anti-Trump movement building within the party.  Trump will take the biggest prize, Florida, apparently by a wide margin.  Some polls have him up by 25 points.  That will knock Florida Senator Marco Rubio out of the race.  In Ohio, though, the state's Governor, John Kasich, is holding on to a slim lead of about five points.  If he can deny Trump the state of Ohio, the anti-Trump groups might still have a chance.  Trump is leading in North Carolina, and by about six in Illinois, but we have no late polling from Missouri.   

Some of the state polls have been fluid in both parties.  The disturbances at Trump rallies over the weekend may influence late deciders, but in what direction? 

It's been a campaign of surprises.  There are few firm predictions being made.

And what of Ted Cruz?  He is not leading in any of the polling done in today's major primary states.  However, if Rubio and Kasich are both knocked out in their home states, he could be the last man standing to take on Donald Trump, and perhaps force an open Republican convention in July.

March 15, 2016       Permalink   

AS WE VOTE – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  America votes in primary elections today, and we have taken that right to vote for granted.  While we vote in peace and freedom, others around the world are facing genocide.  The president of the United States (for another ten months) shows indifference.  From Kirsten Powers at USA Today: 

Hillary Clinton has said it. Marco Rubio, too. The European Parliament, the U.S. Catholic bishops and Pope Francis have also uttered the important word to describe Islamic State’s systematic elimination of Christians and other religious and ethnic minorities in the Middle East.

It’s called genocide.

The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, the Iraqi and Kurdish governments, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have called what is happening by it’s correct name.

But not so the Obama Administration. The president and his representatives refuse to embrace the word and the attendant responsibilities that come with recognizing the campaign of terror in the Middle East.

So it’s left to the House of Representatives to speak out on behalf of the United States. Today, Congress will join the global chorus of condemnation and take up a resolution cosponsored by 203 members of Congress — including 62 Democrats — to say what the president will not. The resolution declares that the atrocities against Middle Eastern religious and ethnic minorities constitute “war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide.” It declares that it is the sense of Congress that all governments, including the Unites States, should recognize this reality. The resolution is expected to pass with overwhelming bipartisan support. A bipartisan companion bill in the Senate has ten cosponsors.

COMMENT:  The basic truth is that Obama is a cold, petty man, who really doesn't care about things like genocide.  He cares about his legacy.  His legacy includes getting the United States– which he regards as a very defective nation – out of the Middle East.  It also includes polishing the image of Islam.  Not the best man to fight genocide.

March 15,  2016     Permalink